过去的两年只是08年以来的全球经济 “3B”复苏(Bumpy,Brittle,Below-par,曲折、脆弱、低于正常水平)中的一个插曲,之后全球经济将逐步回归疫情前的中长期轨道。

伴随着支撑全球经济复苏的三大因素出现逆转,之前被暂时掩盖的长期结构性问题将重新浮出水面。当全球经济再次站在十字路口,是延续之前的刺激方式来延缓危机的爆发但最终走向更严重的危机,还是探寻全新且充满未知的出路而创造涅槃重生的机会,是摆在全球政策制定者面前一道艰难的选择题。

The past two years are just an episode in the "3B" recovery of the global economy since 2008 (Bumpy, Brittle, Below-par, tortuous, fragile, and below normal), after which the global economy will gradually return to the pre-pandemic medium and long-term track .

Long-term structural problems that were temporarily masked will resurface as the three factors underpinning the global economic recovery reverse. When the global economy is at a crossroads again, whether to continue the previous stimulus to delay the outbreak of the crisis but eventually lead to a more serious crisis, or to explore a new and unknown way out to create an opportunity for nirvana and rebirth, is for global policy makers A tough choice ahead.

There is no doubt that next year will be a year when China's economy faces challenges. It is difficult to find effective solutions when thinking about problems under the old framework. We believe that we should start from the "great change not seen in a century" and under the new framework of "cross-cycle adjustment", to think and discuss the problems of China's economy next year. The construction of affordable housing without speculation, the revitalization of the manufacturing industry under the national security strategy, and the green development in the dual-carbon era can all become new choices for China's high-quality economic development.


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